Anzac Day, or at least the public holiday for it, coincides with the Oscars.

It has not been a good year for awards shows. Nights of glitz and glamour aren't the same without the glitz and glamour. Excited glimpses of a star-studded red carpet are rather less exciting when there are no stars studding it.

Ratings for the last Grammy Awards were down more than half; ratings for the Golden Globes dropped more than 60 percent. A major awards show is a dicey business in these coronavirus-infected times. When the Oscars is broadcast here on Monday will there be anyone actually watching?

Things have certainly not been promising in recent times: between 2014 and last year, when 23.6 million people watched Parasite take the top honours, viewership has dropped 44 per cent. A reduction by the amount the Globes suffered would put the audience in single-digit millions, a disaster for Disney, which owns ABC, the channel broadcasting the Oscars, and who have committed to more than $900 million for worldwide broadcast rights till 2028.

But perhaps there is a bigger problem this year, one that no amount of money thrown at whatever lavish and unusual presentation can be dreamed up will solve. It's that nobody has heard of the films.

Lack of awareness

I am, of course, exaggerating. But not by much. Consider this: the film leading the charge with ten nominations is Mank. Guts + Data, a research firm focused on entertainment, said last month that only 18 per cent of active film watchers had heard of it. Not seen it, heard of it.

Similar figures dog other nominees for Best Picture (take a quick quiz at home: how many of the eight nominees can you name?). The best-known contender is Judas and the Black Messiah – not a film that has raised the slightest waves here - with 46 per cent awareness. Current front-runner, Nomadland, registered only 35 per cent.

Nomadland.

Again, this bodes badly for the ceremony since peak rating coincide with blockbuster films. The biggest ratings peak was in 1998, when 57.2 million tuned in to see Titanic take the Best Picture statuette. In the new millennium the most highly-rated ceremony was 2004 when the final Lord of the Rings film swept the awards.

One thing might help: The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, which organises the whole shebang, has turned over the ceremony to celebrated but somewhat maverick director Steven Soderbergh, responsible for box-office gold such as the Ocean's Eleven series but also a bunch of experimental outings few have heard of. Ironically he made the film Contagion in 2011.

Covid costs

Soderbergh has been rather hamstrung by current condition in which Covid-19 safety costs alone are taking up a full third of the production budget. Despite this he's aiming to get every nominee in front of a television camera somewhere, whether at Los Angeles Union Station or the usual Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, or at one of 20 alternative venues around the world.

And the films? Well there are some terrific nominees. But I don't think any of them are ‘Oscar-worthy'. Not one. In answer to that quiz they are: Judas and the Black Messiah; Mank; Minari; Nomadland; Promising Young Woman; Sound of Metal; The Father; and Trial of the Chicago 7.

Trial of the Chicago 7.

In my opinion these are all small ‘art films', not Oscar-winning movies. Nomadland is wonderful, and Minari is wonderful. Both are small ‘art films'. The Father is devastating and has a simply brilliant turn from Anthony Hopkins. Judas and the Black Messiah is very smart, as is Trial of the Chicago 7, despite the embarrassing liberties it takes with history. Promising Young Woman and Sound of Metal are striking and modern and excellent but not even vaguely Best Picture material.

Which leaves Mank. It's a fascinating film, fantastically directed by David Fincher, with a fantastic central performance from Gary Oldman. But it's also an incredibly silly film, filled with cameos of long-dead Hollywood characters, unrecognisable to most people, and with a screenplay - filled with bon mots though it may be - that makes less sense the more you think about it. It certainly looks and sounds good, but Best Picture? Not in a million years.