9:49:01 Tuesday 1 April 2025

New climate target 'below expectations'

The lowest possible starting point was 51 percent, because the Paris Agreement requires each country's new target to be a step up on its previous one.

The government was told its climate target for 2035 was "below expectations" for a developed country and unlikely to meet the expectations of key partners and the international community.

Officials laid out their assessments to Cabinet for a range of possible climate targets, starting from cutting emissions by 51 percent by 2035 and topping out at 65 per cent reductions.

The lowest possible starting point was 51 per cent, because the Paris Agreement requires each country's new target to be a step up on its previous one - and New Zealand's target for 2030 is 50 percent.

That was the figure the government went with.

As well as being the lowest, it was also rated by officials as the cheapest and most feasible to achieve.

However, the government left open the possibility of achieving a 55 per cent reduction if the technology for reducing livestock emissions and other developments go well.

When Climate Change Minister Simon Watts announced the 51-55 per cent target, he described it as "ambitious".

However the assessment he showed Cabinet - which the Ministry for the Environment proactively released this month - rated a 51 per cent target as having "low alignment" with the principle of fairly sharing climate efforts between rich and poor countries. It was described as "less likely to to be considered sufficient by key partners and the global community" compared with any other target. A 55 per cent target was rated slightly better but still not strongly on the Paris Agreement's principles of equity.

The lowest target was, however, also rated most feasible to implement and least likely to involve spending money.

Under the Paris Agreement, each country's target is supposed to represent the "highest possible ambition" in light of national circumstances.

As a developed country, the advice says New Zealand is expected to do more towards global efforts.

In a Cabinet paper, Watts told other government ministers that a target range of 51 per cent to 55 per cent "represents our highest possible ambition given our national circumstances."

He said it was "a relatively small progression over the 50 per cent reduction [for 2030]".

"Other countries are likely to progress their [Paris] commitments by more."

However, he noted it could be achieved inside New Zealand, unlike the current target, which requires overseas help.

"Officials estimate that achieving a reduction of 51 per cent to 55 per cent will reduce GDP by 0.1 per cent to 0.3 per cent in 2035, and cost the average household $80-$195 per year or about $1.50-$3.75 per week," Watts advised his colleagues in the Cabinet paper.

He also noted that the government was already legally required under the Zero Carbon Act to reduce emissions in line with a 51 per cent cut by 2035, so this did not require any extra work.

However, the government is currently 9 million tonnes short of meeting its obligation under the Act, based on policies today, a gap Watts said would be addressed closer to the time.

Achieving a 55 per cent target would require an extra 10 million tonnes of emissions cuts on top of what was already required of the government in domestic law, he said.

"There is uncertainty about what levels of emissions reduction will be feasible in the 2031-35 period," he said.

7 comments

Hmmm

Posted on 29-03-2025 16:06 | By Let's get real

As a nation do we want to grow trees or food..?
Just look around at the landscape and you'll see how many pine plantations we now have, and they'll be there for 25 to 30 years, not producing food any more.
I'd rather die from global warming than hunger.


What rubbish

Posted on 29-03-2025 16:47 | By Saul

We need to ditch this "Bankers" climate change crap.
Or our Country is finished


The Master

Posted on 29-03-2025 16:52 | By Ian Stevenson

Unsure how there could be a "climate target 'below expectations' "?

The earths current temperature is considerably below the long term average of the last few tens of thousands of year, even compared to the last few hundred million years.... it has continuously been a lot warmer than now by a significant margin and during those times life on earth has flourished and some.

Simple concept... cold is bad, warm is better and some.


Off load production

Posted on 29-03-2025 20:34 | By Graize

Do what the European countries did and off load production to China and India. Problem solved not


The Master

Posted on 30-03-2025 20:24 | By Ian Stevenson

Science, data and facts are in interesting thing.... from Earths history of 4.5-billion-years.

Example:- There is no correlation between temperature and CO2 levels, if anything there is a negative correlation. History shows that temperature and CO2 often moved on opposite directions, often also is that one would move up or down and the other would not move at all.

Did you know that there have been ice caps, meaning all year round ice@poles, for most of the last 34 million-years, but for the 230 million years prior to that there was none. That is <15% of the time.

Did you know, that the temperature in Roman times was warmer than today.

Did you know that the current Earths average temperature is at about the lower quartile, meaning it is around 25% above the lowest temperatures and so 75% below the highest.


The Master - part 2

Posted on 30-03-2025 20:31 | By Ian Stevenson

Did you know: -

- That the average temperature in Wellington, over the last 40 years has dropped
- That most of the Antarctic weather recording stations are on the Western side where numerous active volcanos are also located. Does that have anything to do with the readings? Ice melting?
- Ice is accumulating on the Eastern side (vastly bigger
- The Little Ice Age 1350AD-1870AD was a challenging time for humans, it was only a "little" ice age not a real one, not even close.
- It is interesting that the so called "Pre-industrial" average temperature/CO2 levels was actually before the Little Ice Age ended, so obviously, its going to get warmer since right!
- of the 400ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere, only 3% is ex humans, if net zero is achieved that at best is 12ppm.


The Master - part 3

Posted on 30-03-2025 20:36 | By Ian Stevenson

So the climate change thing, if it is in fact real, how exactly is the net zero plans somehow able to be achieved without forcing in-mass retro of the entire population of the planet back to pre-industrial quality of life...

Hint, not published... CO2 levels have increased some 33% in 155 years. planet wide. Lets say about half that has been in <50 years... say 16-17%. But what is not published is that in the last 40-50 years satellite data reveals that the planets plant and vegetation has increase 15%, is there a connection to the increase CO2 levels?

Again the science would say yes, CO2 is planet food, this means more CO2 means more plants grow better, bigger etc.


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