The Christmas Day forecast is becoming clearer, and outdoor weather is on the cards for the Bay of Plenty and Rotorua.

With Christmas only a week away, the region is set to dodge the rain, as forecasts point to warm and mostly dry weather.

MetService meteorologist Lewis Ferris said Christmas Day was looking like being clear, and he was “pretty positive” about the forecast.

“It does come with that caveat of keeping up with the latest forecast just to see if that does change as we get closer.”

Ferris said the Bay of Plenty region was situated in a “good part” of the country for the most likely Christmas Day forecast.

“I would be pretty positive about the Bay of Plenty and Rotorua weather for Christmas.”

The wetter weather looked to be focused in the south and west of the country.

“There is still an off-chance of some sort of showers coming down from the northwest.”

These were not “super likely” to affect the Bay of Plenty or Rotorua at this point.

“I’m not going to say go all out with your sort of outdoors plans at this point, but I think there’s a good chance that people will be enjoying outside weather on Christmas Day.”

New Zealand was running into a “streak” of cooler weather.

“But it does look like the current forecast looks to rebound as we make our way through next week.”

MetService forecasts Bay of Plenty temperatures to be around the low to mid-20s for Christmas.

Outside weather is on the cards for the Bay of Plenty and Rotorua this Christmas. Photo / Sylvie Whinray

“If it is sunny, then that’s probably going to feel too hot for some places,” Ferris said.

Tauranga recorded a new December record high (since 1941) of 31.2C on December 7, according to MetService, with Rotorua hitting 28C, its fourth-hottest December day since 1972.

Earth Science NZ’s seasonal climate outlook said temperatures were likely to be above average across the Bay of Plenty until February.

Heading into Boxing Day, Ferris said there were two opposite scenarios for the Bay and Rotorua.

“The wet weather is still most likely in the south and west, and the particular system that will be driving that will determine what Boxing Day looks like.”

If the wet weather moved up the country, it was likely to be “greyer, wetter” on Boxing Day.

“Or if it does just skim along the south of the country, then it could be another nice day, and could be a better day on Boxing Day.

“That’s giving the two opposite scenarios.”

Eastern areas of both the North and South Islands looked to be the best places in terms of having warm, sunnier days.

“At this point, we’re kind of looking at the most likely weather scenarios.”

Kaitlyn Morrell is a journalist for the Bay of Plenty Times and Rotorua Daily Post. She has lived in the region for several years and studied journalism at Massey University.