A move to social media platforms could prove the difference for Tauranga City Council candidates as local body elections start to heat up, according to one Waikato academic.

Research undertaken by a group of Waikato University academic identifies a 'statistically significant” link between social media support and a candidate's share of the votes. But the study also shows it is no certainty this leads to indicating election results.

In fact, politicians' and candidates' online support did not necessarily translate to votes, according to the Waikato University research comparing candidates' Facebook and Twitter support at the last general election with their results.

Research author Doctor Michael Cameron says although social media was in play during the 2010 general elections, which saw National keep their popularity, incumbency was the bigger player.

'From some extent that would have been because of the nature of the 2011 general elections where National was in power and stayed in power,” says Michael.

The research, titled: ‘Can social media predict election results? Evidence from New Zealand', saw researchers measure support for general election candidates on both Facebook and Twitter using the number of ‘friends' and ‘followers' they had, two months and one month before, and on election day.

Of 453 electorate candidates, 59 per cent were on Facebook and 28 per cent were on Twitter.

But by using the number of Facebook friends as an explanatory variable, only 16.7 per cent of election winners were predicted correctly. For Twitter followers the comparable value was just 5.4 per cent.

Three years on Michael predicts social media to have a bigger impact on the election landscape with candidates able to freely and effectively connect with the community.

'I would expect in the local body elections social media will have a bigger impact because most people don't know the candidates as well. To get your name out there is going to be particularly important.”

Tauranga City councillor Murray Guy, a front-runner among his council peers with his use of the social media platforms, says it is the only way to campaign.

'It's the only tool that is effective. Short of door knocking and we knock on a lot of empty doors, it's the only tool people in my position have to really cost effectively, and in mass, share their thoughts.”

His campaign Facebook page, ‘Murray Guy for Tauranga', has 49 likes and he has 54 twitter followers with 2181 tweets. His separate personal Facebook profile is also linked up to his twitter account to maximise coverage.

'I understand it's a bit like throwing a rock in the water. You make many waves even though you are only making one,” says Murray.

'It's a totally changing landscape. I'm not a computer guru at all. I'm just a person using the tools as they are presented to me.”

First time Mount/Papamoa ward candidate Clayton Mitchell says he is exploring all options for his campaign and social media is certainly one of them.

'I think to touch a wider selector of the community that's certainly one medium that need to be done but not to be taken over from the old school beating the feet, knocking on doors and talking with people,” says Clayton.

Created on July 15, his Facebook campaign profile ‘Click Tick Clayton' already has 488 ‘likes' while his twitter equivalent is in the early stages with five followers. But Clayton hopes social media can inform younger generations who are not easily influenced or susceptible to traditional forms of campaigning.

'I think the worrying thing is the youth is probably the most apathetic within our community and they don't go out of their way to find out or know and don't want to stop or talk,” says Clayton. '