After a warm, dry end to meteorological summer, autumn announces itself in a chilly and wet fashion.

MetService is forecasting a cool week for most, with wet and thundery weather and biting southerlies along southern and eastern North Island coastlines.

However, brighter weather returns by the end of the working week.

In Tauranga, some showers are possible tomorrow, but things are looking mostly fine throughout the week.

Meanwhile, Tropical Cyclone Alfred now appears less likely to affect New Zealand.

A rain-bearing cold front moves up the South Island today, delivering heavier falls to eastern areas at times before clearing from the south and west this evening.

On Tuesday, it’s the North Island’s turn, with rain and showers, reaching Northland by the end of the day.

Thunderstorms are also on the cards, particularly for the lower North Island and upper South Island.

“Hail is likely from thunderstorms on Tuesday, especially for Nelson, Tasman, and Marlborough,” MetService meteorologist Mmathapelo Makgabutlane said.

“While many areas have favourable conditions for thunderstorms, not everyone will see one. However, where they do occur, they could bring intense rainfall in a short period.

“After a dry start to the year, many places need rain, but a sudden downpour may not be the most beneficial way for it to arrive.”

Showers should persist through Wednesday and Thursday for eastern regions and the lower North Island.

By Friday, most places can expect brighter skies, aside from some cloud and showers in the far south of the South Island.

Alongside wet weather, a shift to cooler temperatures is on the way.

“After highs in the upper 20s and even 30s over the weekend, mid-week temperatures will drop to the mid-teens, with cool nights as well. Parts of the Canterbury high country may even see frost on Thursday morning, with Twizel forecast to dip to 2°C,” Makgabutlane said.

The cooler air is driven by southerlies, which could be strong at times in the eastern and lower North Island, leading to rough sea conditions.

“Swell heights will be something to watch along the Gisborne and Hawke’s Bay coastlines from Thursday. Extra care is advised for anyone planning to be near the water.”

Tropical Cyclone Alfred, which initially appeared to have the potential to turn towards Aotearoa, now looks more likely to track westward towards the Queensland coast of Australia.

“Our thoughts are with those who may be affected across the Tasman. MetService will continue to monitor developments, and more information on the cyclone’s impact in Australia can be found on the Bureau of Meteorology’s website."