The weather forecast for the week ahead includes mainly fine days for the Bay of Plenty, with some southerlies and a chance of showers.

MetService is forecasting a trough moving northwards across southern and central New Zealand on Tuesday.

"This trough contains a small but deep low, bringing strong winds to southern and eastern coastal areas, and possibly brief heavy rain to Southland," a MetService spokesperson said.

"There is moderate confidence that a warning will be required for severe south to southwest gales during the second half of the day about coastal parts of southern Fiordland and Southland, but low confidence for coastal Otago and Banks Peninsula."

On Tuesday, March 12, the trough and low are expected to move northwards through central parts of the country, and will be followed by a ridge.

"There is low confidence that a warning will be required for severe south to southwest gales from coastal Dunedin northwards through North Otago, Banks Peninsula, the Kaikoura Coast, Marlborough Sounds, Wellington and coastal Wairarapa."

On Thursday, the trough is expected to clear the North Island during the morning, with high pressure over the South Island spreading onto the North Island.

"There is minimal risk of severe weather."

By Friday, the front will be moving northwards over the South Island, bringing brief heavy rain to the west coast, with minimal risk of severe weather.